Friday, October 12, 2007

Poll Dancing

To the best of my knowledge there hasn't been a recent poll asking Pgh. voters which mayoral candidate will get their vote. Currently we're reading & hearing that 70% or even 80% would vote for Mayor Ravenstahl, but no citations on which entity did the poll and when they did the poll. Looks like they're relying on months old data, gathered when the climate was very different.

My sense is that there haven't been any polls taken since back in March of this year, which was before the Primary & before Peduto dropped out of the race. Peduto commissioned that poll and it did, indeed, show that some 70% of voters planned to vote for Ravenstahl.

Maria asked Jon Delano about this on Lynn's show this morning & Delano agreed that he hadn't heard of any recent polls & he said it's a shame there hasn't been one. He also said they cost money. From campaigns I've worked on I figure a poll that'd give a reliable result would cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 - 30,000.

I agree with Jon that polls done by campaigns aren't the most trustworthy, so I ask any of you reporters from the MSM to nudge your bosses into doing a poll now. A newspaper and radio/tv station could go in halfsies, making the cost manageable.

I bet that the numbers would look quite different at this stage of the game.


  1. A poll is only a reflection of a moment in time.

    The MSM seem to be constantly quoting a poll that is, what, some seven months old and half a dozen scandals ago?

    Moreover, I think that that poll was an approval rating question. Now approval ratings do of course bear a relationship to how one might be expected to vote. However, if I was called on a poll and asked if I approved of, say, each of the Dems running for President, I would likely say that I approved of most of them. On the other hand, I have no idea at this moment who I'd actually vote for if the vote was held today.

    Let's have an honest-to-god, real, independently-sponsored poll asking likely voters who they'd cast their vote for Mayor if the election were held today.

    People like winners and repeating the results of a months old poll only can serve the winner of that past poll as it gives voters an excuse not to even consider the other guy they are being told has no chance.